UP: Is BJP's Victory Margin So Large That It Cannot Lose The Election?
UP: Is BJP’s Victory Margin So Large That It Cannot Lose The Election?
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New Delhi: BJP won the last election in landslides. A victory margin is so large so much, if not most, observers are reasonable that it cannot be overcome by the opposition. Polling estimates that even though BJP can lose 100 seats (from 325 to 225 seats from 403 above), it will still win with a clear majority.
This seems clear to be a solid foundation and cannot be overcome – but is it unprecedented? Not enough, because it rises always a volatile condition. The average margin of victory in all elections since 1997 was just right under the BJP landslide in 2017
However, BJP has another different advantage because it fights up this election – the opposition has been divided so that BJP can survive greater than a larger swing in its popular voting. If it faces almost united opposition, the BJP will lose to swing 5%, but with such fragmented opposition, far swing from BJP needs to be significantly higher. So, how many voters can lose BJP while remaining election winners?
However, regardless of this enormous swing is needed for BJP to lose this election, there are worries in the BJP that the big swing is not uncommon. In fact, the swing that supports BJP in the last election in 2017 of 2012 was 26% large (see Figure 5) and up from 47 seats to 325 seats.
Increasing anxiety in BJP is that despite 52% of the votes in the selection of Lok Sabha, there is a sharp decline in assembly selection (see Figure 6) compared to the selection of Lok Sabha. This decrease used to be around 14%, but over the past few years – before and after the Sabha 2019 election – BJP has dropped by 21% in the 10 elections of assembly held one year earlier and since the selection of Sabha Lok.
If this pattern is repeated, the BJP voting will drop to 30.5% in this election – Swing -10% of 41.5% of the votes currently won in 2017 – swings that will destroy the party.
However, the point for BJP is that he has entered the contest in this election with an almost unprecedented foundation sound coupled with a great margin of victory because of the opposition which is very divided. The problem is, his face is that the country has gone through a deep financial crisis because Covid – it doesn’t really matter if BJP handles covid well or not, people suffer greatly. Coupled with price increases – again, it doesn’t matter whether it’s the result of external factors (such as the increase in oil prices) – this has resulted in anger in the population, and some governments in history have succeeded in preventing the swing away after this crisis. The main target for BJP is to prevent swings more than 7% – because more than that means it can lose power.
